Post 9: The Diffusion of Innovations Theory

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         The Rogers Diffusion of Innovations identifies the adaptation of innovation as a bell-shaped curve. For any new innovations, objects or ideas, as time progresses, there will be pioneers, early adopters, early majority, late adopters, and laggers. It also goes through four stages of penetrations: experimental, uptake, maturation, and saturation. 


        Using Instagram as an example, it can be analyzed with the Diffusion theory. Instagram was released by Facebook Inc in 2012. The first group of users were the pioneers of this innovation, before January of 2012, there were only roughly 90 million users; these individuals were already familiar and comfortable with digital technology at the time. Throughout the next couple of years until 2018, the growth of numbers of users was steady, about 100 million per year. The period before 2018 can be considered the experimental stage. 

        During 2018-2021, the number of users of Instagram rapidly grew from 800 million to 2000million; this quickly brought the innovation to its stage of uptake; where people with diverse ages and social backgrounds are quickly adapting to the new idea and the number are quickly growing. Nowadays, we see individuals, organizations, corporates joining Instagram every day and the APP is growing to be more personalized and easy to use. It can be assumed that Instagram is quickly reaching the peak of the bell-shaped curve: its critical mass. 

        For the future, after the majority of the younger generation has joined the membership, Instagram will gradually get into its maturation stage where the number of users will gradually decrease and reach saturation. Personally, I predict it would be within the next 3-5 years, considering how rapidly the world of technology evolves. 

        The Diffusion of Innovations can also be used to analyze ideas and new concepts; including touchy and intense topics like Covid-19. On the other hand, the diffusion of innovation curve can also happen for bad ideas and rumors if it is propagandized in a misdirected way. With the power of media, it can also easily create echo chambers. Therefore, it is good to develop critical thinking skills and take information selectively. 



Sources:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/253577/number-of-monthly-active-instagram-users/#:~:text=As%20of%20December%202021%2C%20Instagram,18%20to%2024%20year%20olds.

http://the2pt5.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/the2pt5_rogers_diffusion_of_innovations-1024x640.png.



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